Rebel forces have launched their largest offensive in years against Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria.
After a lightning strike launched on Wednesday, the rebels have largely taken control of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, and are now fighting to take control of the city of Hama.
The offensive has prompted “the first Russian strikes on Aleppo since 2016″, and has seen the Syrian military withdraw its troops from the city for first time since the civil war began, said the BBC.
The rebel coalition consists of “well-established armed Islamist factions who, despite their differences, are united in fighting Assad and Iran-backed militias”, said CNN. But the driving force behind the fighting is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a “formidable” and controversial Islamic faction that has deep roots in Syria’s ongoing civil war.
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Who are Hayat Tahrir al-Sham?
HTS has long been designated a terrorist group by the US, Russia and other states. Its founder, Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, was involved in the Iraqi insurgency against the US as a member of the group that eventually became Islamic State.
Jolani then went to Syria and, during the early days of the Syrian conflict, founded a Syrian affiliate of Al-Qaeda, called Jabhat al-Nusra. But in 2016, Jolani publicly broke ties with Al-Qaeda, dissolved Jabhat al-Nusra and joined with other rebel groups to form HTS. It is the most powerful rebel faction in Syria, with command over some 30,000 troops.
What do they want?
HTS established a power base in Idlib, where about 4 million people live. It is the “de facto local administration” in the area but “its efforts towards legitimacy have been tarnished by alleged human rights abuses”, said the BBC.
The group – its name means Organization for the Liberation of the Levant – seems to have fairly limited, local goals. Its stated aims are to establish fundamentalist Islamic rule in Syria, rather than a wider caliphate (as groups like Islamic State have tried and failed to do).
For years, HTS has shown little ambition to expand beyond Idlib. After an initial period of fighting with the Syrian government forces, a 2020 ceasefire brokered by Turkey and Russia has largely held.
But this sudden push into Aleppo could mark a significant shift in the group’s long-term strategy.
Why now?
The attack has come at a time when the Syrian government and its allies are distracted by other conflicts.
The Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah, which was crucial in helping Assad push back rebels in the early years of the civil war, has suffered major losses from Israel’s offensive in Lebanon. Israeli strikes have also eliminated Iranian military commanders in Syria, and degraded supply lines to pro-government militias there. And Assad’s major ally, Russia, is distracted by the war in Ukraine.
Without these allies, “Assad’s forces have been left exposed”, said the BBC.
Can Assad contain the rebels?
HTS’s rapid gains have blindsided the Assad regime, but his administration and its allies will almost certainly fight back. “The actual battle hasn’t started yet,” Ibrahim al-Assil, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington DC, told The Guardian. “Assad might be applying an old strategy: withdraw, regroup, fortify, and counterattack.”
As Assad’s forces consolidate in Hama and Russian airstrikes “seem likely to ramp up”, HTS faces a tough challenge in the coming days. Negotiations between Turkey and Russia are also likely to play a key role in shaping the outcome of the conflict.
Many experts now fear Assad will turn to chemical weapons to contain the insurgency, “just as he did to devastating effect in the darkest days of the civil war”, said The Guardian. “If so, whatever successes the rebels manage to consolidate could come at a horrifying cost.”
