USD/CAD’s late break of 1.3749 confirms resumption of the whole decline from 1.4791. Initial bias is back on the downside this week. Next near term target if 61.8% projection of 1.4414 to 1.3749 from 1.4014 at 1.3603. On the upside, above 1.3812 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.4014 resistance holds, in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4150 resistance turned support holds. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3727 will pave the way back to 61.8% retracement at 1.3069.
In the long term picture, as long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.3476) holds, up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) should still resume through 1.4791 at a later stage. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has already completed, with rise from 1.2005 to 1.4791 as the fifth wave. 1.4791 would then be seen as a long term top and deeper medium term down trend should then follow.
