President Trump’s wish list of all he would like to do is so bizarre that it’s necessary to draw the line between fantasy and reality.
He can’t be serious about making Canada the 51st state. He’s got to be just yakking about annexing Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark. And it’s difficult to imagine he’s going to start wars in Central America or the Middle East for the sake of recovering the Panama Canal or turning Gaza into a lovely beachfront zone while dispersing its Palestinian citizenry to Egypt and Jordan.
Getting past these headline-grabbing flights into fantasy, however, we come down to the hard reality of what Trump is doing about America’s incredible trade deficits — not just with China, which netted a stupendous $295.4 billion from trade with the U.S. last year, but also with America’s Northeast Asian allies.
Japan and South Korea’s 2024 trade surpluses with the U.S. amounted to $68.5 billion and $66 billion each, just ahead of Canada, at $63.3 billion. Then there’s Taiwan, the independent island which China, vowing to take over, bullies with air and naval exercises. Taiwan had a surplus with the U.S. of $73.9 billion.
Trump is imposing stiff tariffs on all of them — notably on chips made in Taiwan and steel and aluminum from China and South Korea.
American diplomats and trade negotiators have been complaining for years about what they see as the unfair trading practices of all these countries. China ranks as the worst offender, but talks with Japan and South Korea are always tendentious despite their importance in defense against China and North Korea, which periodically threatens them by testing nuclear warheads that occasionally fly over Japan. And what about Vietnam, whose surplus of $123.5 billion, nearly 50 years after the fall of the American-backed Saigon regime, ranked fourth in 2024 after Mexico’s $171.8 billion?
Within Northeast and East Asia, Trump faces perpetual crises, aggravated by Chinese aggression ranging from intimidation of Taiwan to claims of sovereignty over almost the entire South China Sea, wedged between the Philippines and Vietnam. Here lies the possibility if not the likelihood of war, while Trump distracts the world with grandiose statement-making about the penalties and punishment awaiting those who fail to pay sufficient attention to his bluff and bluster.
For Trump, it’s easier to put on the appearance of a would-be imperial conqueror of foreign lands than to guarantee real defense against real threats that, if carried out, would test his mettle as a national leader.
Sources of war in East Asia wind up in maneuvering of forces, with occasional shots and a sense of worse to come if the weaker party does not behave. In the South China Sea, sleek Chinese coast guard cutters fire powerful water cannons at poor Filipino fishing boats attempting to sneak through the barriers the Chinese have placed around historic fish-rich shoals.
The Americans, training and supplying their Philippine ally, do not want to risk a real war. U.S. warplanes and ships periodically attempt to show the waters and skies belong to everyone, defying the Chinese nestled on airstrips and bases they’ve built on islets in the sea. Lately, Philippine T50 fighters, made in Korea as lesser versions of the F-16, have been tagging along beside enormous U.S. B1 bombers. The Chinese warn them off but refrain from opening fire.
Trump, in the first summit of his second term after receiving Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, collaborated with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on a statement underscoring their “unwavering commitment to the defense of Japan,” including “nuclear capabilities,” a guarantee of the American nuclear umbrella. More specifically, the statement pledged “strong opposition to any action that seeks to undermine Japan’s longstanding and peaceful administration of the Senkaku Islands,” the uninhabited cluster long claimed by China but held by Japan. And they “reaffirmed their strong opposition” to China’s “unlawful maritime claims, militarization of reclaimed features, and threatening and provocative activities in the South China Sea.”
Trump and Ishiba’s declaration of long-established American policy, pursued during Democratic and Republican administrations, stopped short of veering into a call to military action. Comforting though such assurances may be, we’ve heard them many times before. If their words did not hark back specifically to the “commitment” that Joe Biden made during his presidency, they were still what the Japanese wanted to hear.
For Trump, however, his emphasis on deficits in trade (not only with China but with those whom the U.S. is deeply committed to defend) vastly complicates matters. Having threatened to withdraw American troops from both South Korea and Japan during his first presidency, he will have difficulty making the same threats again when the military stakes are far higher. Although the U.S. has no troops on Taiwan, which it cannot recognize as an independent entity without thoroughly infuriating China, Washington is no less sworn to its defense.
Not that Trump is wrong in wanting to redress trade imbalances. The U.S. cannot go on forever with yawning deficits exacerbated by a declining manufacturing base. Trump did not have to mention Biden by name, much less insult him as he often does, when he agreed totally with him on stopping Japan’s Nippon Steel from taking over U.S. Steel, an iconic manufacturer that symbolizes America’s industrial heritage. He will have to do much more, however, to slash trade deficits with America’s greatest allies, let alone China.
Chinese navy vessels and warplanes now encircle Taiwan almost all the time, and Kim Jong Un, buoyed by his alliance with Russia, is threatening South Korea, Japan and the U.S. more loudly than ever. Trump has said he would like to meet Kim again, as he did three times during his first term, but Kim said he’s expanding his nuclear program after Trump joined Ishiba in reiterating the familiar plea for “complete denuclearization.” In any case, Kim is not going to give up his nukes, which American presidents have been demanding ever since the early days of the Clinton administration.
Realistically, it’s in East Asia, from the South China Sea to Taiwan and the Korean peninsula, that Trump faces his toughest decisions. Is he prepared to act quickly, as Harry Truman did when the Chinese invaded South Korea in 1950? By raising tariffs, as promised, he is fomenting a tariff war with allies with whom he must cooperate as a matter of security. He has avoided saying a thing about the real challenges hanging over the region, preferring to distract attention by specious talk of conquest and expansionism that even he must know is beyond the realm of reality.
Donald Kirk has been a journalist for more than 60 years, focusing much of his career on conflict in Asia and the Middle East, including as a correspondent for the Washington Star and Chicago Tribune. He is currently a freelance correspondent covering North and South Korea, and is the author of several books about Asian affairs.
