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Hard currency shortages widely hinder international business activity by obstructing the exchange of goods and services. We assess the risk of hard currency shortages in four emerging market countries: Egypt, Bangladesh, Nigeria, and Argentina.
Egypt
During the second half of 2023 and early 2024, importing businesses in Egypt struggled to mitigate the impacts of foreign currency rationing by the Egyptian authorities, in place since the summer of 2023. Access to foreign currency was positively transformed during March 2024 after a consortium led by ADQ, one of Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth funds, committed to invest US$35 billion into the development of Ras El Hekma, a future tourist resort in the Egyptian north coast. The initial inflows under this program stabilized Egypt’s foreign-exchange (FX) reserves, coinciding with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgrading its support package for Egypt to US$8 billion later in March 2024.
The combination of these events provided enough FX cover for the Egyptian central bank to allow the Egyptian pound’s exchange rate against the US dollar to fall while using a 600-basis-point (bp)-increase in the main policy rate to forestall inflationary pressures from the depreciation of the Egyptian pound and to discourage further financial outflows.
Such a major positive shift of hard currency availability in a country under stress is relatively rare.
We assess that Egypt will continue lowering its foreign currency shortage risks. This reflects likely progress with structural reform implementation as foreign investment momentum improves further. A further decline in risk is likely to be assisted by additional inflows from the landmark US$35 billion investment from ADQ.
Continued improvement will lead to a further clearing of import backlogs and the loosening of restrictions on foreign currency transactions, while potential capital flight is likely to decline as investor and consumer sentiment improves. Stronger reserves would also support the import cover ratio and help cover Egypt’s short-term external financing needs.
We see an underlying risk of renewed hard currency shortages in Egypt if the government fails to implement structural reforms and intervenes again to set a non-market FX rate, if domestic energy shortages lead to prolonged and substantial import needs draining foreign currency resources or in the event of a regional escalation of the Israel-Hamas war.
Nigeria
Nigeria’s external position is improving, driven by a recovery in oil and natural gas production, complemented by resilience in remittance inflows, increased portfolio inflows, rising multilateral financial support, and policy reforms.
Since President Bola Tinubu took office in May 2023, various policies have improved the operation of the FX market. These regulations require financial institutions to adhere to a cap on foreign currency holdings, reducing the scope for speculative “hoarding.” Banks also must maintain a healthy level of high-quality liquid assets in each significant currency to ensure that they can readily cover foreign currency transactions.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is also applying more orthodox monetary policy by gradually increasing the monetary policy rate to address inflationary pressures and ensure price stability. We project that total capital imports into Nigeria will improve, driven by foreign portfolio investment attracted by high interest rates and the tighter stance of the Monetary Policy Committee. Foreign capital inflows are also likely to be encouraged by easing monetary policies undertaken by major central banks.
Several risks will continue to threaten Nigeria’s FX position. Among these are weak governance, low non-oil revenue, high hydrocarbon dependence, security challenges, high inflation, and some ongoing weaknesses in the exchange-rate framework. Should reforms stall or social and political challenges force the Monetary Policy Committee to pre-emptively ease monetary policy, a potential consequence of recent civil unrest, international portfolio investors would be likely to reduce their exposures, causing capital outflows.
Bangladesh
Bangladesh’s foreign currency shortages originate from a sudden and sharp deterioration in its external liquidity position in 2022, reflecting the country’s high sensitivity to global price shocks exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Substantially increased energy import costs have led to a sharp deterioration in the current account deficit, putting increasing pressure on foreign reserves and the taka exchange rate.
FX reserves declined from a high of US$47 billion in August 2021 to slightly over US$18 billion by April 2024, as Bangladesh Bank defended the value of the taka. Growing divergence between the official and the parallel market rate has also led to a sharp fall in remittances through official channels, worsening US dollar shortages and triggering import restrictions and capital controls. Businesses are reporting persistent delays in securing trade financing and restrictions on opening letters of credit.
We anticipate the severity of hard currency shortages to gradually subside, under the condition that political stability is restored soon following the recent social unrest and the abrupt resignation of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina on Aug. 5, 2024. However, the downside risks to this outlook have intensified since Hasina’s resignation, and we expect Bangladesh’s US dollar shortages to persist over the one-year outlook horizon. Protracted political crisis or social unrest could materially lower exports, keeping pressure on foreign reserves and prolonging foreign currency shortages. Even if political stability returns, further currency liberalization may be limited by elevated inflation, while the gradual removal of import restrictions will increase import demand, likely leading to the current account deteriorating.
Argentina
Argentina imposed capital controls during the 2019 presidential election process and has been unable to curb substantial distortions in its FX market despite obtaining a US$44.5 billion IMF Stand-By Arrangement program. Argentina has a complicated multiple exchange rate system. The country’s weak external liquidity position was exacerbated by the severe drought, reducing agro-exporting revenues by over 40% in 2023.
In its first eight months, President Javier Milei’s government has made advances in key areas designed to facilitate the eventual formal dollarization of the economy. The current administration has reversed Argentina’s deep fiscal deficit to achieve a surplus. It has also reduced the central bank’s interest-bearing liabilities and increased the country’s FX reserves. The government has pledged to maintain a monthly 2% crawling devaluation and the preferential exporting rate system in place for the third quarter of 2024 even with the substantial appreciation of the peso in real terms.
Argentine farmers have traditionally retained a sizable stock of their production from the previous harvest, usually to reduce revenue loss from high inflation and local currency depreciation. This remains the case as in the absence of a market-driven exchange rate for their sales: Exporters lack incentives to sell their inventory in the short term, given the clear likelihood of achieving more attractive rates from deferral.
The 2025 outlook for the exporting sector is positive, although agricultural commodity prices are expected to decline. The return of the La Niña weather pattern increases downside risk for the 2024-25 agricultural crop season. We estimate that if Argentina were to dollarize in December 2025, following the current strategy of issuing new public-sector debt, or obtaining new loans, to cover the Central Bank of Argentina’s existing interest-bearing liabilities, the exchange rate would be about 2,200 pesos per US$1, assuming that the central bank would purchase all peso currency in circulation using its FX reserves and assets.
Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
