(Bloomberg) — Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris’s Fine Gael party is locked in a virtual dead heat with Sinn Fein in the general election, suggesting his decision to go to the country early didn’t yield the advantage he predicted.
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Fine Gael won 21% of first-preference votes in Friday’s election, the official exit poll showed. Sinn Fein won 21.1%, while Fianna Fail, Fine Gael’s coalition partner, was on 19.5.%. The poll had a margin of error of 1.4%.
Even so, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail going back into government is still the most likely outcome — both have ruled out working with Sinn Fein. Almost half of respondents in the exit poll said they want the two centrist parties to lead another government. But a tight race is not ideal for Harris, especially if he emerges with less support than his rival.
The premier called the vote early — it wasn’t due to be held until March — to try to capitalize on Fine Gael’s surge in support since he became Taoiseach in April. It was dubbed the “Harris hop” in the media, and the 38-year-old made his campaign slogan “new energy,” even though as a former health minister he was not new to government. A giveaway budget and what appeared to be a slide in support for Sinn Fein made it seem the optimal time to seek a new mandate.
It’s a key moment. Whoever forms the next government will enjoy a budget surplus and soaring tax receipts from US firms including Apple Inc. operating there. What to do with Ireland’s billions has been a key focus of the election, with parties competing on spending ideas — even as the re-election of Donald Trump in the US and his threat of trade tariffs injected a sense of caution.
But Harris’s election campaign was beset with slip-ups, the worst a viral video of him walking away from a disability care worker and dismissing her view that the government wasn’t doing enough. Harris later apologized.
Based on the exit poll, Fine Gael’s support has slumped significantly in recent weeks. An Irish Times survey in September — before the election announcement — showed Fine Gael at 27%, Sinn Fein at 20% and Fianna Fail at 19%.
Worryingly for Harris, the exit poll also shows the premier trailing his two main rivals on the question of who should be next Taoiseach. Only 27% said they want the Fine Gael leader leading the country, while 35% said they would like Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin and 34% preferred Sinn Fein’s Mary Lou McDonald.
McDonald’s strength comes from her support among young people, and that gels with the exit poll showing housing and homelessness were the biggest issues for voters, followed by the cost of living. Data published on election day showed homelessness in Ireland reached a record figure of almost 15,000.
Sinn Fein’s rise under McDonald has shaken up Irish politics since she took over from Gerry Adams as president in 2018, its first leader unconnected to the era of sectarian violence in Northern Ireland known as the Troubles. Its left-leaning economic agenda appealed to voters struggling with a housing shortage and rising inflation. At the start of the year, Sinn Fein was far ahead in the polls and appeared on course to form a government for the first time.
But it was also a roller-coaster year for Sinn Fein, which struggled to adapt its message to growing concerns in Ireland about rising immigration and the pressure it was putting on housing and public services. The party’s lackluster performance in local and European votes in June played into Harris’s thinking on the timing of the general election.
The exit poll suggests McDonald has stabilized Sinn Fein’s support — with major implications for Irish politics. Fianna Fail and Fine Gael led every government since the state was formed 100 years ago, and while that looks set to continue, Sinn Fein’s emergence as a third major party is changing the dynamic.
“The wider picture here is that we’re seeing further fragmentation within the Irish political system, across many smaller parties and indeed with many independents,” Jack Chambers, finance minister and Fianna Fail’s deputy leader, told RTE after the exit poll was released.
For now, a repeat of 2020 — when Sinn Fein narrowly won the popular vote but Fine Gael and Fianna Fail formed the government — still looks likely.
Yet the exit poll gives Harris plenty to worry about. Ireland’s electoral system, a version of proportional representation with voters ranking preferred candidates, parties need to win 88 seats for a majority in the 174-seat Dail, or parliament. But no party fielded enough candidates to reach that threshold on its own, while the overall picture can change once second- and third-choice votes start to impact the makeup of parliament.
The risk for Harris is that Fianna Fail leapfrogs Fine Gael in seats. That, coupled with Harris polling lower than Martin personally, would likely affect who has the upper hand in coalition negotiations, which could take weeks.
Vote counting began at 9 a.m. on Saturday, with a clearer picture likely to emerge by the afternoon or later.
It’s also not clear who Fine Gael and Fianna Fail would bring in to the coalition if, as expected, they fall short of a majority together. Their coalition partner last time, the Greens, are expected to have fewer seats this time.
For the two incumbent centrist parties, the support of a smaller center-left group would be ideal. According to the exit poll, the Social Democrats are on 5.8%, Labour at 5% and the Green Party at 4%.
The exit poll is based on over 5,000 interviews conducted immediately after people voted at polling stations across 43 constituencies across the country.
(Updates with more details from exit poll from third paragraph.)
