Good morning. Yesterday, Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed a European Council summit in Brussels, and emphasised the urgency of the EU’s role in Ukraine’s future as Donald Trump turns away. “It’s crucial that our partners’ support for Ukraine doesn’t decrease but instead continues and grows,” he said. And he added: “Europe must always be at the table in discussions about its own security.”
EU countries certainly agree on that, and said yesterday that they were ready to again increase sanctions against Russia – but they are sharply divided on how to achieve it. Meanwhile, after a meeting with western military planners near London, Keir Starmer yesterday appeared to step back from his pledge to put boots on the ground in Ukraine, saying instead that allied forces would be deployed by sea and air in support of Kyiv’s own forces.
For today’s newsletter, I spoke to the Guardian’s Brussels correspondent, Jennifer Rankin, about the blocs negotiating the future of European security – and the differences in geography, history, and economic reality that stand in the way. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
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Heathrow | London’s Heathrow airport will be closed all day on Friday after a fire at an electrical substation supplying the airport caused a “significant power outage” and left thousands of homes without power. The shutdown at one of the busiest hubs in the world is likely to affect about 1,300 flights.
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Climate crisis | The government is “absolutely up for the fight” over net zero, energy secretary Ed Miliband has said, as he accused the Conservatives and Reform of “a total desertion and betrayal” of future generations by failing to tackle the climate crisis. Some Labour MPs fear the government could row back on funding and targets under political pressure.
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Middle East | Tens of thousands of Israelis have taken to the streets to call for a new ceasefire in Gaza and to protest against what they say is an attack on the country’s democracy by the rightwing governing coalition of Benjamin Netanyahu.
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Interest rates | The Bank of England said UK businesses are freezing their hiring plans in response to Rachel Reeves’s tax increases and amid mounting global uncertainty as it kept interest rates on hold at 4.5%. The bank’s monetary policy committee voted by eight to one to pause its cycle of rate cuts after three reductions in the past year.
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UK news | One of Stephen Lawrence’s killers may now accept he was involved in assaulting the teenager, according to a report by the Parole Board. The board said yesterday that David Norris, now 48, will face his hearing in public with the reported support of Stephen’s parents.
In depth: Europe’s defence debate
After the watershed summit earlier this month where European leaders agreed to an €800bn (£670bn) plan to increase defence spending, yesterday’s Brussels meeting was “a lot quieter”, Jennifer said.
But it is a measure of how sharply European foreign policy has shifted that the matters under discussion were still momentous. The European Commission set out more detail on a loan scheme worth €150bn (£125bn) to cover defence investments earlier this week. A plan to send billions in immediate military aid to Ukraine was downgraded to a request to send ammunition. And it remains unclear how many countries will take advantage of a new carveout from debt rules to spend more on their defence – or what exactly might be counted in that category.
“For context, the EU is still divided over how to repay the debts taken on coming out of the pandemic,” Jennifer said. “So it’s not surprising that on how to fund European rearmament, there are political tensions over all of it.”
The frontline | Poland, Baltic and Nordic countries
A glance at a map or history book should make it fairly clear why this group takes the most hawkish view: proximity to Russia. With polls showing consistently high levels of support for Ukraine, “they are Ukraine’s really staunch supporters,” Jennifer said. “They have the strongest recognition of the threat from Russia, and they keep stressing the urgency for Europe to increase defence spending.”
Some supported the proposals to pledge €40bn (£33bn) in EU military aid to Ukraine this year, but that idea was shelved in the face of opposition from France, Spain and Italy. Meanwhile, Poland and the Baltic nations – Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia – are planning to withdraw from a convention banning anti-personnel landmines so that they can strengthen their border defences.
The Financial Times reported yesterday that the Nordic nations are working with the UK, France, and Germany on a plan to gradually take greater responsibility for the continent’s security from the US, in the hope of getting Donald Trump to agree to a managed transfer over the next five to 10 years – rather than making an abrupt exit from Nato.
The giants | France and Germany
The two biggest players in the EU are not perfectly aligned, Jennifer pointed out. “France is in the lead when it comes to ideas about putting boots on the ground,” she said.
“Macron has said for years that Europe needs to be more independent from the US, and that it should think more about hard power. Whatever stripe of government is in charge in Germany, it tends to be more cautious. But ultimately it is giving much more to Ukraine than France is” – $17.3bn against $4.9bn from 2022 to 2024.
Still, the two countries are united in making the most aggressive moves to grow their defence industries, and to loosen rules on debt for defence spending. Macron has successfully pushed for a “Buy European” rule for the loan scheme. And incoming German chancellor Friedrich Merz pushed a plan that narrowly passed the Bundestag this week to exempt defence and security spending from debt rules.
In this opinion piece, Martin Kettle describes that vote as “a genuine turn in the road for postwar Germany” – but also emphasises its influence over the rest of Europe: by changing its own rules, he writes, Berlin has “removed the longstanding excuse behind which some European states have been content to hide”.
The reluctant supporters | Italy, Spain, and Portugal
In the south of Europe is a group of countries that take a more cautious view. “They do support Ukraine, but in a less full-throated way,” Jennifer said. “And they have other security issues on their mind.”
She pointed to a recent FT interview with Spanish prime minister Pedro Sánchez in which he called for the definition of defence spending to include cybersecurity, anti-terrorism work, and “the real threat of the climate emergency in the Mediterranean”. Italy has taken a similar view. Along with Portugal, they sit close to the bottom of the Nato defence spending league table, spending less than the 2% of GDP target; they also lag in aid to Ukraine. Greece, although spending much more on defence partly because of longstanding tensions with Turkey, is aligned with Spain in wanting grants to member states to strengthen their militaries.
Like the countries nearer Russia, geography plays a large part in their priorities. Indeed, Sánchez said yesterday that “the challenges that we face in the southern neighbourhood are a bit different to the ones the eastern flank face.”
“There is a reluctance to spend a lot on defensive measures ultimately aimed at the other side of Europe,” Jennifer said. “That naturally goes down badly with the northern European countries – which also question whether it’s fair to use grants to help countries which have failed to hit the 2% target when they promised to a long time ago.”
The illiberal bloc | Hungary, Slovakia and – maybe – the Czech Republic
Yesterday, 26 EU member states signed a joint text saying that the bloc is “ready to step up further pressure on Russia”. One country refused: Hungary. Yesterday, Volodymyr Zelenskyy made a veiled reference to Hungary’s authoritarian leader, Viktor Orbán, and his efforts to block Ukraine’s EU membership, saying: “It is simply anti-European when one person blocks decisions that are important for the entire continent”.
“Hungary is in a class all by itself,” Jennifer said. In this analysis piece from earlier this month, she explains that opposition from Orbán – who last year became the first western leader to meet Vladimir Putin since the beginning of the war – means that “EU member states are increasingly interested in ‘coalitions of the willing’”.
Hungary is not entirely isolated: Slovakia’s prime minister Robert Fico has also sympathised with Russia and threatened to cut off electricity exports to Kyiv, while a billionaire businessman and ally of Orbán, Andrej Babiš, could adopt similar policies if his party wins the Czech Republic’s upcoming elections. Until now, Hungary has always acceded to new sanctions plans in the end – but it is an open question whether Orbán will take a different view in the light of Donald Trump’s sympathy for Moscow.
The nearly-Europeans | UK and Canada
The UK, as you will have heard, is no longer part of the EU; Canada is separated by an ocean. But the new geopolitical reality imposed by Trump has prompted a rapid reassessment of foreign policy priorities, and both are now viewed as strong allies whose support can play a crucial role in bolstering European security.
Canada, under new prime minister Mark Carney, is in advanced talks with the EU about building European fighter jets and other military equipment – in part so that its economy is better insulated from the whims of the White House in the future. At the moment, UK arms companies are excluded from the new €150bn rearmament fund – but that could change if a defence and security pact is signed. A key question is whether it can be negotiated separately from wider talks on post-Brexit arrangements.
All of that suggests how deeply Trump’s stance on Ukraine has shaken Europe. “The great cliche of Brussels is you need a crisis to move forward,” Jennifer said. “There is a real sense that the EU has been shocked into finally doing something about its defence. But it is also entirely possible that when all of this has shaken out, southern and northern Europe will be split.”
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What else we’ve been reading
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Keira Knightley is having something of a renaissance after her smash hit performance in Black Doves over Christmas – here Rebecca Nicholson ranks her best film performances, although how Star Wars: Phantom Menace manages to climb above the brilliantly fun noughties teen horror the Hole is anyone’s guess. Toby Moses, head of newsletters
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The latest piece in the excellent How Covid changed us series, by Heather Stewart, Matthew Pearce and Tural Ahmedzade, focuses on what the pandemic meant for the British state. As one Treasury adviser puts it: “Covid broke maths”. So why does nobody talk about its continued impact on the public finances? Archie
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“We’ve lost five homes to fires, earthquakes, floods. We’re waiting for the locusts.” Jeff Bridges is on great form talking to Laura Barton about acting, family and the album of his lost 70s songs, Slow Magic, which is released in April. Toby
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Aluf Benn, the editor-in-chief of Haaretz, has written a superb piece about Benjamin Netanyahu’s war on Israel’s “enemies within”. He casts that project as indivisible from the renewal of the assault on Gaza. Archie
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Alexandria is sinking (along with Venice, Miami, Lagos and Jakarta) but the people closest to the disaster don’t believe it, even as the science is clear that sea levels are rising. Alexander Durie and Heba Khamis have spoken to the fishing communities that will be decimated and the experts trying to warn the government of the dangers. Toby
Sport
Olympics | Kirsty Coventry (above) has been named the new president of the International Olympic Committee, becoming the first woman to hold the post. Coventry, a Zimbabwean swimmer who won seven Olympic medals, beat six other candidates including the British former athlete and president of World Athletics Sebastian Coe.
Football | Scott McTominay’s first-half penalty gave Scotland a 1-0 win in Greece in the first leg of their National League Group B2 relegation playoff. Steve Clarke’s side clung on to victory despite 24 shots on goal from their opponents.
Formula One | Tributes have been paid across the industry after former team owner Eddie Jordan died at age 76 in his home in Cape Town, after being diagnosed with cancer in December last year. The Irishman defied the odds to bring his independent Jordan team into the sport and achieved notable successes including four grand prix wins.
The front pages
“Miliband: Tories ‘betrayed’ next generation on energy,” is the splash on the Guardian today, reporting on an interview with the energy secretary.
The second story covers Keir Starmer’s comments on the war in Ukraine, which also feature elsewhere. “Starmer has change of heart on plan for ‘boots on the ground’ in Ukraine,” writes the Financial Times. The i runs with, “Starmer threatens Putin with ‘severe consequences’ if Russia attacks UK peacekeepers” and the Times: “UK sends message to Putin about deterrent.”
“Police target top 100,” is the lead story on the Metro, a story about the Met tracking an updating list of the most serious predators against women and girls. “Starmer’s 5% council tax rise shame,” is the focus in the Express, and “Growth forecast halved in blow to PM” in the Telegraph. The Mail meanwhile runs with “Council tax soars to a record high.”
Something for the weekend
Our critics’ roundup of the best things to watch, read, play and listen to right now
TV
The Residence | ★★★★☆
Like a locked-room mystery, do you? How about a 132-locked-rooms mystery, with more than 150 murder suspects? Settle in for some uber-Christie with comic knobs on, courtesy of Shondaland’s latest production: The Residence, a bonkers whodunnit starring the magnificently inimitable Uzo Aduba, who appears to be having almost as much fun as her audience. The Residence is a very happy experience all round – moreish, bingeable, a complete tonic. Lucy Mangan
Film
Ne Zha 2 | ★★★★☆
Currently the highest-grossing animated film ever, this Chinese box-office obliterator is being touted as the long-awaited crossover point for the country’s mainstream industry. Forget the adulterated, Communist party-sponsored attempts at blockbusters of the past, self-taught animator Jiaozi’s film is an utterly self-assured pageant of Chinese mythology. Demonic tyke Ne Zha and do-gooder squire Ao Bing – born from two halves of the same celestial pearl – are rebuilding their physical forms through the power of a sacred lotus. But they’re interrupted when their town Chentang Pass is invaded by razor-sideburned demon Shen Gongbao, colluding with a gaggle of exiled dragons. Jiaozi effectively juggles lofty wuxia heroics with down’n’dirty humour and overwhelming artistry. Phil Hoad
Music
Bryan Ferry and Amelia Barratt: Loose Talk | ★★★★☆
Ostensibly Ferry’s first album of new music in 11 years, this is more an act of exhumation. The instrumental tracks are based on unreleased demo recordings from throughout Ferry’s career, with the earliest examples dating from the early 70s. There’s a certain pleasure to be had in trying to work out what era they hail from. Was Stand Near Me’s strange blend of funk bass and noodling, occasionally atonal synth once intended to be brushed up for 1979’s Manifesto? Were the eerie ambient electronics on Pictures on a Wall a staging post en route to Avalon’s instrumentals India and Tara? Happily, the music on Loose Talk has value beyond a guessing game for Roxy/Ferry nuts. The album is a collaboration with visual artist and writer Barratt, who, in a cool, unemotional RP voice, provides texts and narration that are striking enough that the listener doesn’t long for an instrumental version. It’s a diversion, but one that transforms Ferry’s past into something fresh. Alexis Petridis
Today in Focus
Having a baby with your best mate
Nicola Slawson on her decision to have a baby with her best friend, Tom, rather than a romantic partner
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Whether you’re nursing a cold, a hangover or a broken heart, some days you just need to watch something familiar and comforting. Over the past few months, Guardian writers have been sharing their go-to feel-good films, and now our readers are getting in on the action.
From the “weepy, anti-fascist ghost story” that is Field of Dreams and the “innocence, nostalgia, loss and loneliness” of Cinema Paradiso to the Stonehenge scene in This Is Spinal Tap and the “endlessly quotable” dialogue of The Big Lebowski, everyone has their favourite flick to turn to when they need the on-screen equivalent of a bear hug and a home-cooked meal.
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
