Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin highlighted the need for a “modestly restrictive” monetary policy stance until there is greater confidence that inflation is firmly returning to the 2% target.
Speaking in a speech overnight, Barkin emphasized the importance of remaining “steadfast” in tackling inflation, warning that history has shown the risks of easing policy too soon.
“We learned in the ’70s that if you back off inflation too soon, you can allow it to reemerge. No one wants to pay that price,” he cautioned.
Barkin acknowledged the high level of uncertainty surrounding economic policy changes, geopolitical tensions, and natural disasters, all of which could influence inflation dynamics.
He noted that tariffs imposed during Donald Trump’s first administration in 2018 added about 30 basis points to inflation. However, he cautioned that the effect of the latest round of trade policies is harder to predict, as firms may either pass costs onto consumers or absorb them.
Beyond trade policies, Barkin also flagged uncertainties around deregulation, tax policies, government spending, and immigration reforms, all of which could shape labor market dynamics and broader economic conditions.
Given these unknowns, he prefers to “wait and see how this uncertainty plays out” before advocating any adjustments to monetary policy.
