Wells Fargo Securities

Summary United States: Risks Have Risen (but Haven’t Materialized Yet) The trade deficit blew a hole in Q1 productivity growth, and tariffs are anecdotally increasing price pressures in the services sector. But beyond temporary trade-related distortions, tariffs have yet to […]

Summary United States: February Bounce More Likely a Head Fake Retail sales, industrial production, existing home sales and housing starts all jumped in February, rebounding from the declines posted the month prior. On closer examination, however, the underlying data point

Summary United States: Hard to Get a Clear View on Restless Waters Amid rising uncertainty, lagging indicators show activity was stable before the tariff storm. The number of job openings was slightly higher than anticipated at the end of January,

Summary The Consumer Price Index came in slightly softer than expected, with both the headline and core indices advancing 0.2% in February. Slower growth in food and energy costs, as well as an easing in core goods and services inflation,

Summary United States: Tariff Turmoil The U.S. economy added 151K jobs in February accompanied by higher unemployment and lower labor force participation. Economic developments elsewhere reflected heightened uncertainty around trade policy, prompting a leap in imports, concerned industry comments and

Summary Consumer price inflation came out of the gate strong in 2025, but price growth looks to have cooled somewhat in February. We estimate headline CPI rose 0.25% and the core index advanced 0.27%. The moderation in the core index

Summary United States: Consumer Hibernation After a solid finish to 2024, the U.S. consumer rested up in January. Spending fell 0.2% despite solid income growth. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation showed price growth easing a bit further on trend,

Summary Over the past 15 years, trade policies implemented by countries around the world have led to economic fragmentation and deglobalization. Tariffs come to mind as the instrument disrupting trade integration the most; however, evidence suggests changes to tariff policies

Summary United States: Housing Market Troubles to Continue Residential construction and existing home sales were muted in January, illustrating continued stress on the housing market amid elevated mortgage rates. Despite the pressure on interest-rate-sensitive sectors, underlying consumer demand is robust

Summary United States: That’s a Wrap The outlook for 2025 is riddled with uncertainty, yet data released this week demonstrate a U.S. economy that retains momentum. Ascertaining what level of policy restraint achieves the careful balance of keeping inflation in