Wells Fargo Securities

Summary The Consumer Price Index came in slightly softer than expected, with both the headline and core indices advancing 0.2% in February. Slower growth in food and energy costs, as well as an easing in core goods and services inflation, […]

Summary United States: Tariff Turmoil The U.S. economy added 151K jobs in February accompanied by higher unemployment and lower labor force participation. Economic developments elsewhere reflected heightened uncertainty around trade policy, prompting a leap in imports, concerned industry comments and

Summary Consumer price inflation came out of the gate strong in 2025, but price growth looks to have cooled somewhat in February. We estimate headline CPI rose 0.25% and the core index advanced 0.27%. The moderation in the core index

Summary United States: Consumer Hibernation After a solid finish to 2024, the U.S. consumer rested up in January. Spending fell 0.2% despite solid income growth. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation showed price growth easing a bit further on trend,

Summary Over the past 15 years, trade policies implemented by countries around the world have led to economic fragmentation and deglobalization. Tariffs come to mind as the instrument disrupting trade integration the most; however, evidence suggests changes to tariff policies

Summary United States: Housing Market Troubles to Continue Residential construction and existing home sales were muted in January, illustrating continued stress on the housing market amid elevated mortgage rates. Despite the pressure on interest-rate-sensitive sectors, underlying consumer demand is robust

Summary United States: That’s a Wrap The outlook for 2025 is riddled with uncertainty, yet data released this week demonstrate a U.S. economy that retains momentum. Ascertaining what level of policy restraint achieves the careful balance of keeping inflation in

Summary As widely expected, the FOMC cut the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 bps at today’s meeting. However, one Committee member, who preferred to keep rates on hold, dissented. Wording in the post-meeting statement was changed

Summary With China particularly sensitive to changes in U.S. trade and tariff policy, we find value in laying out scenarios for how China’s economy and currency could evolve going forward. In this report, we outline the policy assumptions underpinning our

Summary United States: Sticky Inflation, Sticky Wicket for the Fed Price data this week showed that inflation remains stubbornly above the FOMC’s target. Overall inflation has trended sideways in recent months, and while we do not expect this week’s data