TD Bank Financial Group

Canadian Highlights Canada’s economy gained momentum in the latter half of 2024, providing a decent hand-off into the current year. We expect real GDP growth to move closer to a trend-like pace in 2025. The Bank of Canada has more […]

Canadian economic growth jumped 0.3% month-on-month (m/m) in October, ahead of Statistics Canada’s advanced guidance and consensus expectations. Early estimates from Statistics Canada point to a slight pullback in November GDP (-0.1% m/m). October’s reading was broad-based, with output expanding

Canadian Highlights The Fall Economic Statement (FES) was delivered amid a chaotic week for the federal government. Larger deficits and modest stimulus were features, although the FES is unlikely to change the Bank of Canada’s thinking on policy. Data on

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut the federal funds rate to the 4.25% to 4.50% range and announced it would continue its balance sheet runoff. The Fed maintained its language on growth and inflation, stating “economic activity has

Canadian Highlights The Bank of Canada lowered its policy rate by 50 bps to 3.25%. This is the second straight upsized cut to interest rates, and marks a cumulative 175 bps of easing since the Bank first lowered rates in

The NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index rose 8.0 points to 101.7 in November, exceeding market expectations for a smaller increase to 95.3. Nine out of ten subcomponents improved on the month, with the share of businesses reporting current inventories to

The Canadian labour market gained 50.5k positions in November. Most of them were full-time jobs, which rose 54.2k, while part-time employment fell 3.6k. The unemployment rate rose 0.3 percentage points to 6.8% as more people joined the labour force (+138k).

The U.S. economy added 227k jobs in November, in line with the consensus forecast calling for a gain of 218k. Payroll figures for the two prior months were revised higher by 56k. Private payrolls rose 194k, with the largest gains

Canadian Highlights The odds of a 50 basis-point rate cut rose to 80% as the unemployment rate ticked up to its highest level since January 2017 (excluding the pandemic). There are notable positives in the jobs report. Employment rose by

Canada’s merchandise trade balance tallied a $942 million deficit in October, registering in the red ink for the eighth consecutive month. The deficit narrowed from September’s $1.3 billion deficit. Merchandise exports rose by 1.1% month-on-month (m/m) in October, partially reversing