Danske Bank

The US House managed to pass the budget bill with a slim majority of just one vote on Thursday. Cuts to spending on medicare and food stamps flipped the last votes in favour of the bill, which also includes an extension […]

This week has been dominated by risk-on sentiment in markets following the positive outcome of the US and China trade negotiations during the weekend in Geneva. The cuts to tariff rates were larger than we and consensus had anticipated as the

In focus today In the US, a range of data is due for release in the afternoon. April retail sales will provide the first hard data evidence on how consumer behaviour has reacted to higher tariffs. April PPI will provide

Not without reason, the US central bank is unsure about the direction of the economy and inflation given the tariff increases and the uncertainty about what will happen to them. That was clear from the monetary policy decision this week where

As expected, the BoE today kept the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.50%. The vote split was slightly to the hawkish side but we do not see this as a broad shift in sentiment within the MPC. Overall, the statement revealed

We expect the Bank of England (BoE) to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.50% on Thursday 20 March in line with consensus and market pricing. Data has been mixed and amid elevated uncertainty, this warrants a continued signalling of

An intensifying trade war weighed on risk appetite in a week when particularly US equities traded lower still. The dollar stabilised at the new much weaker levels and global yields largely traded sideways. US steel and aluminium tariffs took effect, and the

We expect the Fed to maintain its monetary policy unchanged in March, in line with wide consensus and market pricing. We do not expect Powell to guide explicitly towards a cut in May, but we do still anticipate three 25bp

In focus today Focus in the euro area is on the ECB watchers conference where several ECB officials will be present. We will particular pay attention to Lagarde’s speech at 09:45 CET. From the US, the January JOLTs labour turnover

The new European security order has become the main market driver. This week, European equities continued to outperform the US, driven by defence stocks. At the time of writing, the German 10y yield was up 20bp on the week, diverging from