Danske Bank

As expected, the BoE today kept the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.50%. The vote split was slightly to the hawkish side but we do not see this as a broad shift in sentiment within the MPC. Overall, the statement revealed […]

We expect the Bank of England (BoE) to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.50% on Thursday 20 March in line with consensus and market pricing. Data has been mixed and amid elevated uncertainty, this warrants a continued signalling of

An intensifying trade war weighed on risk appetite in a week when particularly US equities traded lower still. The dollar stabilised at the new much weaker levels and global yields largely traded sideways. US steel and aluminium tariffs took effect, and the

We expect the Fed to maintain its monetary policy unchanged in March, in line with wide consensus and market pricing. We do not expect Powell to guide explicitly towards a cut in May, but we do still anticipate three 25bp

In focus today Focus in the euro area is on the ECB watchers conference where several ECB officials will be present. We will particular pay attention to Lagarde’s speech at 09:45 CET. From the US, the January JOLTs labour turnover

The new European security order has become the main market driver. This week, European equities continued to outperform the US, driven by defence stocks. At the time of writing, the German 10y yield was up 20bp on the week, diverging from

Today the ECB decided to cut the policy rate by 25bp, so the deposit rate now yields 2.50%. The most important part of the decision was its assessment of the restrictiveness of its monetary policy stance. The ECB now sees

The ECB meeting next week is expected to end with yet another 25bp rate cut, bringing the policy rate to 2.5%, 150bp lower than the peak last year. While the cut decision is relatively straightforward, divergences in the ECB GC

Signs of weaker economic growth in the US have hit a nerve in markets, and the constant political uncertainty is certainly not providing any help. US equities fell and energy prices declined with Brent now trading around USD73/bbl. – the lowest

Geopolitics dominated the news flow again this week but overall had limited market impact. The US held peace talks with Russia in Saudia Arabia leaving EU and Ukraine out of the talks. And during the week the relationship between US President