AUD/USD edged higher to 0.6390 last week but reversed from there. Nevertheless, initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, firm break of near term trend line support (now at 0.6250) will argue that corrective pattern from 0.6087 has already completed. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 0.6186 support. Further break there will solidify this bearish case and target 0.6087 low. For now, in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.6087 at 0.6413.
In the bigger picture, fall from 0.6941 (2024 high) is seen as part of the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6482) holds.
In the long term picture, prior rejection by 55 M EMA (now at 0.6801) is taken as a bearish signal. But for now, fall from 0.8006 is still seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.5506 long term bottom (2020 low). Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to contain downside to bring reversal. However, this view is subject to adjustment if current decline accelerates further.
