At the Races: Closing time - Business And America

Both on the airwaves and the campaign trail, it’s time for candidates and campaigns to make their final pitches and make sure their voters turn out.

It’s already past the time when the U.S. Postal Service says it is safe to mail ballots — especially in states with requirements that ballots be received, rather than postmarked, by Election Day.

Thus it is no surprise that top congressional leaders have been crisscrossing the country to help get out the vote for their candidates. At the Races ran into both House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., while on the campaign trail in Michigan this week.

Speaker Mike Johnson’s comments about upending the 2010 health care law, made in Pennsylvania on Monday while campaigning for Ryan Mackenzie in the commonwealth’s 7th District, drew attention throughout the week.

“Health care reform’s going to be a big part of the agenda. When I say we’re going to have a very aggressive first 100 days agenda, we got a lot of things still on the table,” Johnson said, according to video first reported by NBC News.

Jeffries seized on the opportunity to bring up the 2010 health care law on the trail Wednesday in Michigan, referring to a “secret” that former President Donald Trump said he had with House Republicans.

“It’s become clear that the secret is that House Republicans want to repeal the Affordable Care Act and make sure that people who have preexisting conditions, in terms of their health, no longer have the health care that they need to actually be able to live a life of dignity and respect,” Jeffries told reporters Wednesday in Flint.

Johnson, Jeffries and other members of House leadership have been on the road. The same is true for the Senate.

NRSC Chairman Steve Daines, who said in an interview with Semafor this week that he will not be running for Republican leader, was in Nevada on Tuesday campaigning for Republican Senate candidate Sam Brown. South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, the only known contender for the NRSC gig next cycle, has been on the trail as well, as Mark Schoeff Jr. reports for CQ Roll Call.

The top candidates for the leadership job, Sens. John Thune and John Cornyn, have seemingly been everywhere both on the ground and in terms of fundraising.

Thune has been in Ohio and Montana in recent days, and he is scheduled to stump for Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania’s Senate race this weekend, and he’s been something of a fixture on TV.

Cornyn, who has also been on the road, voted early in Texas on Tuesday and said he was looking forward to the challenges ahead, according to MyHighPlains.com.

“I feel like I’m ready to assume those responsibilities. But in the end, it’s not about me and it’s not about the other candidate. It’s about what our country needs,” Cornyn said.

The third known contender for the job, Florida Sen. Rick Scott, is the only one of the three men in cycle this year. He is favored in his Senate race.

Starting gate

So vulnerable: Our last Most Vulnerable Incumbents lists of the 2024 cycle! Want to see who squeezed into the House roster? Or maybe you’re more into the more exclusive Senate club. Oh, just read both. And listen to us talk about it on the latest Political Theater podcast.

O-H-I-O: Be honest: You’d read Jacob Fulton’s story about Rep. Marcy Kaptur’s race just for the dateline, right? DEFIANCE, Ohio. And if you need some more of his reporting from the Buckeye State (and a COLUMBUS dateline), check out what he wrote about the Toss-up Senate race between Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown and Republican Bernie Moreno.

Central casting: Two Toss-up open House seats in central Michigan show the issues that animate voters as they consider close races at the presidential, Senate and House levels.

Count ’em: This year’s election will be the first test of the 2022 Electoral Count Reform Act, enacted in the wake of the insurrection on Jan. 6, 2021, and its advocates expect it to help clarify what happens when it comes to certifying the presidential election, Michael Macagnone reports.

Abortion messaging: Republican candidates have made an effort to be more forthcoming about their abortion positions this cycle. Some Democrats say the issue is energizing even more voters this year than it did two years ago, and Harris made it a key part of her closing message ahead of the campaign’s final week.

ICYMI

Meddling in CO03: The Democratic Party in Colorado sent a mailer to voters in the 3rd District that aims to boost the long-shot Libertarian Party candidate in an apparent effort to siphon votes from Republican Jeff Hurd, The Colorado Sun reports. The mailer describes Libertarian James Wiley as “the strongest Trump supporter” in the race. The mailers don’t disclose the sender, and both the Democratic Party and Democratic nominee Adam Frisch denied sending them, according to the Sun.

Defiant response: The Transgender Law Center, the National LGBTQ Task Force and Way to Rise, a nonprofit that promotes democracy, are launching a new ad aimed at countering Republican attacks on trans rights. The 30-second spot, which is titled “Defiance,” will run on streaming platforms, YouTube, Meta and Snapchat. The groups spent $160,000 on the ad campaign.

Taylor-mania: Democrats Serve PAC, which supports Democrats with public service backgrounds, has launched a new digital ad campaign aimed at newly registered young women in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and other key battlegrounds. The ads remind voters that Taylor Swift endorsed Harris.

What we’re reading

Schiff the campaigner: The New York Times hit the campaign trail with Rep. Adam B. Schiff — in Arizona and Nevada. The California Senate candidate is going to win his own race, so he’s been traveling the country campaigning for other current and future colleagues.

Ballot error: A Connecticut town had some trouble getting going with early voting, distributing ballots to some voters with the wrong state legislative district. The town of Stonington is split between two seats, and The Day reports that voters are able to void the erroneous ballots and vote again.

Truth hurts: The Bulwark looked at a series of juicy “scoops” from Bad Hombre, a prolific poster on X whose breathless claims use the aura of journalistic authenticity to peddle misinformation. Among the fake news recently spread by the account was a false claim that the Harris campaign paid singer Lizzo $2.3 million to appear at a rally in Detroit.

Not the news: Courier Newsroom, a chain of local news sites in battleground states founded to promote a liberal political agenda, is running ads on Snapchat boosting Harris. Such ads don’t require disclosure to the Federal Election Commission because the agency previously ruled that Courier is a media outlet and is thus exempt from campaign finance laws. But several experts told NOTUS that the latest round of spending skirts the limits of FEC regulations.

White noise: Business Insider reported last week that Moreno’s campaign was using a special device to muffle recordings made by trackers. A new report by Mother Jones found that the Republican Senate candidate was using the gadget to scramble audio recorded by voters at his public events as well.

Blue to red: North Carolina state Rep. Tricia Cotham made headlines last year when she switched parties and became a Republican, handing the GOP a supermajority in the state House. The Assembly examines how that switch is playing out on a personal and political level.

The count: 15 percent

That’s the rate at which Michigan Democrats have voted early both in greater Dearborn (Dearborn and Dearborn Heights) and among the state’s voters who identify as Muslim, according to returns reported by voter data firm L2 through Wednesday.

In the greater Dearborn area, 34 percent of Republicans have already cast their ballots, as have 26 percent of Muslim voters registered as Republicans.

In Michigan at large, Democrats outnumber Republicans in the voter rolls 2-to-1, but only 26 percent of them have voted so far, compared with 37 percent of Republicans.

Key race: #CA47

Candidates: The race for an open seat in suburban Southern California pits Republican Scott Baugh, a former member of the California Assembly and former chairman of the Republican Party in Orange County, against Democrat Dave Min, a former UC Irvine law professor and state senator.

Why it matters: The district is in the heart of Orange County, a birthplace of the modern conservative movement, where both Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan found early political success. Democratic Rep. Katie Porter flipped the once deep-red seat in the “blue wave” of 2018. Four years later, Baugh came within 3 percentage points of ousting Porter despite being outspent $26 million to $3 million. With Porter retiring from Congress after an unsuccessful run for Senate, the district has become a key battleground in the fight for control of the House — and a test of whether suburban voters will come back to the GOP.

Cash dash: As of Oct. 16, Min had raised $6 million to Baugh’s $4 million. Outside groups are also spending heavily in the race. The Congressional Leadership Fund, which is tied to Johnson, went up on TV in mid-September attacking Min as soft on crime, while House Majority PAC, which is affiliated with Democratic House leaders, is running an ad hitting Baugh on abortion rights.

Backers: Min has Porter’s backing, as well as the support of almost all of the state’s Democratic political establishment and groups focused on increasing Asian American representation in Congress, including the AAPI Victory Fund and ASPIRE PAC, the political arm of Asian American and Pacific Islander Members of Congress. Former President Bill Clinton stumped for Min last weekend. Baugh received a boost from Johnson, who visited the district and campaigned with the Republican nominee earlier this month. Baugh has also been endorsed by Southern California GOP Reps. Mike Garcia, Ken Calvert, Michelle Steel and Young Kim as well as the Club for Growth.

What they’re saying: Both candidates have stuck close to their party’s core themes. Baugh has emphasized the cost of living, border security and public safety, while Min has focused on reproductive rights. Min has attacked Baugh as a “MAGA extremist,” and Baugh has taken aim at Min’s record in the Legislature. But they have also emphasized the personal: Min has talked about being the son of Korean immigrants, and Baugh discussed his brother’s death from a fentanyl overdose in an ad.

Terrain: The district stretches along the Pacific Coast and includes the affluent enclaves of Huntington Beach and Newport Beach, as well as Irvine, the region’s fast growing and increasingly diverse biotech and education hub. President Joe Biden would have won the district by 11 points in 2020 had the current political boundaries been in place, but his decisive margin of victory belies the Democrats’ narrow voter registration edge. Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates the race as a Toss-up.

Wild card: Another Democrat, attorney and activist Joanna Weiss, also competed in the March primary but didn’t win enough support to secure a place on the November ballot. But in the run-up to the primary, she blasted Min over his May 2023 drunken driving arrest. Min has repeatedly apologized for the incident, but it appears to be resonating with voters: In a poll released last month by the University of Southern California, California State University Long Beach and Cal Poly Pomona, respondents used the terms “DUI” and “drunk driving” when asked to describe Min. Democrats have painted Baugh as ethically compromised, citing a $47,900 fine he paid in 1999 related to campaign finance violations.

Coming up

Something’s happening on Nov. 5, but for the life of us, we can’t remember what. KIDDING! Remember to bookmark RollCall.com and get ready for a special edition of At the Races on Wednesday, Nov. 6, followed by a regularly scheduled At the Races on Thursday, Nov. 7.