EUR/USD’s extended rally last week suggests that corrective fall from 1.1572 has already completed at 1.1064. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for retesting 1.1572 first. Firm break there will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 1.0176 to 1.1572 from 1.1064 at 1.1927. However, below 1.1255 minor support will dampen this view and turn intraday bias neutral again.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.0837) holds.
In the long term picture, the case of long term bullish reversal is building up. Sustained break of falling channel resistance (now at around 1.1300) will argue that the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) has completed at 0.9534. A medium term up trend should then follow even as a corrective move. Next target is 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019.
